So what will the Browns do tonight in the first round of the NFL Draft?

 

I don’t know for sure.

 

And those who say that they do – and their names aren’t Browns owner Jimmy Haslam, Vice President of Football Operations Sashi Brown, head coach Hue Jackson, Vice President of Player Personnel Andrew Berry and Chief Strategy Officer Paul DePodesta – are being less than honest.

 

As I said here yesterday, the Browns have done a great job of camouflaging their intentions, for all the so-called experts are just guessing.

 

That’s where I’m at. I’m just guessing.

 

You might call it an educated guess, but it’s still only a guess.

 

This is what I THINK the Browns will do: They’ll trade out of the No. 8 overall slot they now hold and move back, then they’ll move back up if they see a player they really like falling. And I think someone they like will indeed fall, so they’ll be dealing twice. Welcome to analytics, everyone.

 

I also think this:

 

*That player who will fall to the Browns – following that second trade, of course – will be either a wide receiver, running back or quarterback. No offensive lineman. No defensive player. And if someone pinned me down, I’d say a quarterback, one by the name of Paxton Lynch. That’s the quarterback Jackson has wanted all along, and Lynch is the reason why the Browns didn’t blink an eye in dealing out of their original No. 2 overall pick.

 

*The Browns will concentrate the rest of the top half of their draft on offensive skill players and pass rushers. Yes, they need an offensive lineman or two, but they need those skill players and pass rushers more – a lot more.

 

*The Browns will put together a draft list that makes sense. Fans may not agree with all of the players the Browns pick, but they will like the positions at which they selected them.

 

And here’s what I KNOW:

 

*Although there’s no way to be certain if this new Browns regime will be successful, or if it will be a complete flop, at least it has a chance to do a good job. And that’s a whole lot more than could ever be said for the previous regime. It was painful to hear former General Manager Ray Farmer and ex-head coach Mike Pettine talk this week for the first time to the media since being fired at the end of last season. Farmer couldn’t draft – he picked Johnny Manziel, who is getting a lot of play as the biggest bust in NFL history, and his other three first-round picks over the last two drafts weren’t much better – and Pettine couldn’t coach. And they detested each other, putting those emotions ahead of the good of the team. Considering all that, then, — considering all this ineptitude and dysfunctional nature —  it’s a miracle the Browns won three games last year.

 

*And finally, because of the efforts – or lack thereof – of the Farmer/Pettine regime and all regimes in the expansion era, the Browns are in a deep hole and as such must hit on most of their draft picks to just have a chance of getting the team turned around. There is no room for error. So the members of the current regime are squarely on the spot. But they know that.